Research

Peer-Reviewed Journals:

“Is there an optimal forecast combination? A stochastic dominance approach to forecast combination puzzle”, Empirical Economics, forthcoming, (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos)

“Persistence in Convergence and Club Formation”, Bulletin of Economic Research, forthcoming, (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan)

“Detecting Capital Market Convergence Clubs”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics &  Econometrics, forthcoming, (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos)

“Analysis of the Seeds of the Debt Crisis in Europe”, European Journal of Finance, forthcoming, (with H. Yener and T. Stengos)

“Application of Wavelet decomposition in Time-Series Forecasting”, Economics Letters, 158, 2017, (with R. Gencay and K. Zhang)

“Markov Regime Switching in mean and in fractional integration parameter “, Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, forthcoming, (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan)

“An Evaluation of Inflation Expectations in Turkey”, Central Bank Review, 17, 2017, (with B. Soybilgen)

“Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition”, International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 2016 (with M. Modugno and B. Soybilgen)

“The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Firm Survival, Sales and Productivity: An Examination with Turkish Firm Level Data”, Economic Systems, 40, 3, 2016,  (with N. Toraganlı)

“Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from Micro Price Data”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 48, 2016, (with Deniz Baglan and Hakan Yılmazkuday)

“High versus Low Inflation: Implications on Price-Level Convergence”, Empirical Economics, 50, 2016, (with H. Yılmazkuday)

“MENA Economies: Reforms, Risk, and Development”, (Introduction to Special Issue), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51, 2015

“Measuring human development in MENA region”  Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,  51, 2015, (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos) [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

“Is Forecasting Inflation Easier under Inflation Targeting” Empirical Economics, 48, 2015 (with H. Özkan), [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].

“Detecting Structural Changes Using Wavelets” Finance Research Letters, 50, 2015 (with H. Özkan) [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes  as *.zip file bundle click here].

“Persistence in Real Exchange Rates”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 18(1), 2014  (with T. Stengos) [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss, R, and Matlab replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].

“Persistence in Convergence”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming (with T. Stengos), 50(2), 2014 [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].

“Forecasting Macro Aggregates in Turkey” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(2), 2014 (with H. Kaya) [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

“The role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further evidence from Turkish Market” , Emerging Markets, Finance and Trade, 48(5),  2012 (with B. Saltoglu) [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].

“Observations on Turkey’s recent economic performance” Atlantic Economic Journal,  40(4), 2012 (with A.S. Akat),  [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

“Has Inflation Targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: Further evidence from Turkish Market” Applied Financial Economics, 21(20), 2011 (with H. Kaya).

“Price-Level Convergence: New Evidence from U.S. Cities” Economics Letters, 2011, 110, (with H. Yilmazkuday).

“The IS Puzzle and the Relative Risk Aversion in Turkey”, Empirical Economics Letters, 2010, 9(2), (with H. Yilmazkuday).

“Currency substitution, Policy Rule, and Pass-Through: Evidence from Turkey” Applied Economics, 2010, 42(18) (with I. Zer).

“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Export and Import Prices” Applied Economics , 2009, 41(17), (with B. Tekin).

“The Effects of Credit and Debit Cards on the Currency Demand” Applied Economics, 2009, 41(17), (with H. Yilmazkuday).

“Okun’s Convergence within the US” Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2009, 2(2), (with H. Yilmazkuday).

“Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel” Applied Financial Economics, 2007, 17, 1 (with H. Yilmazkuday).

“Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2005, 9, 1 (with H. Yilmazkuday ).

“The purchasing power parity hypothesis for a high inflation country: a re-examination of the case of Turkey”,  Applied Economics Letters, 2003, 10, 143-147.

“Is Turkish Exchange Rate Overvalued?” Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 2002, 13, No:2

“Döviz Kuru Dayalı İstikrar Programları: Teori ve Uygulama”, (in Turkish, with K. Akay), Ekonomi ve Yonetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 2000, V.1, N.2

Book Chapters: 

“Electricity Trade Patterns in a Network: Evidence from the Ontario Market”, (with T. Genç, and J.O. Pineau), in “Progress in Clean Energy, Springer, forthcoming

Other publications (in Turkish):

“Döviz Kuru İhracat Fiyatlarına Yansıyor mu ?” (with A.S. Akat), İktisat ve Toplum, 29, 2012 [Click here for pdf version of the paper]

“2014 Büyümesi Bize Ne Söylüyor ?” Borsa İstanbul Magazin, Kış 2015

“2015 Yılına Nasıl Başlandı ve Ekonomiyi Önümüzdeki Yıllarda Nasıl Bir Gelecek Bekliyor.”, Akfen Strategy, Nisan-Haziran 2015

“SimdiTahmin.com’un Türkiye GSYH büyüme oranları için tahmin performansı”, (with B. Soybilgen), 74, İktisat ve Toplum, 2016

Working Papers:

“Nowcasting the new Turkish GDP” (with B. Soybilgen)

“Nowcasting the Turkish Unemployment Rate: A Forecast Combination Approach” (with B. Soybilgen)

“Detecting Convergence Clubs” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos)

“When Wavelets Are Useful for Forecasting” (with R. Gencay)

“Persistence with Structural Breaks and Convergence” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos)

“Is there an optimal forecast combination? A stochastic dominance approach to forecast combination puzzle”, (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos)

“Favorable real exchange rate effects on the balance of trade: How pervasive ?”, (with S. Öztürk)

“Does Wind Generation Really Reduce GHG Emissions?” (with T. Genç)

“Identification of Common Factors in Panel Data Growth Models” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos)

“When wavelets are useful forecasters ?” (with R. Gencay)

“Non-homothetic Preferences with Habit Formation in Nondurable and Durable Consumption: Implications for Sectoral Comovement”, (with E. Volkan and K. Huang)