Research

Working Papers:

– “Searching for the Optimal Level: Inflation and Price Variability in Turkey“, (with H. Karahan)

– “Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence: Further Results ”, (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos)

–  “When wavelets are useful forecasters ?”, (with R. Gencay)

–  “Revisiting the link between Growth and Volatility: Panel GARCH analysis”, (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos)

–  “Does Wind Generation Really Reduce GHG Emissions?”, (with T. Genç)

Peer-Reviewed Journals:

– “Real Exchange Rates and Balance of Trade: Does the J-Curve Effect Really Hold?” (with S. S. Öztürk), Open Economies Review, published online, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-018-9510-3.

– “Detecting Convergence Clubs” (with F. C. Beylunioglu and T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, published online, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100518000391, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

– “Persistence in Convergence and Club Formation”(with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Bulletin of Economic Research, 2018, Vol. 70, Issue 2, pp.119-138. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/boer.12130, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

– “Evaluating Nowcasts of Bridge Equations with Advanced Combination Schemes for the Turkish Unemployment Rate” (with B. Soybilgen), Economic Modelling, 2018, Vol./Issue 72, pp. 99-108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.009, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

– “Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2018, Vol. 22, Issue 3, pp.1-17.  https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2017-0043, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

– “Identification of Common Factors in Panel Data Growth Models”(with P. Deniz and T. Stengos), Economics Letters, 2018, Vol. 168, pp. 94-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.04.021, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

– “Nowcasting the New Turkish GDP” (with B. Soybilgen), Economics Bulletin, 2018, Vol. 38, Issue 2, pp. 1083-1089. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2018/Volume38/EB-18-V38-I2-P105.pdf.

– “Quantile Forecast Combination Using Stochastic Dominance” (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos), Empirical Economics, published online, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1343-1, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

– “How Succesful Are Wavelets in Detecting Jumps?”(with B. A. Eroglu and R. Gencay), Entrophy, 2017, Vol. 19, No. 12: 638. https://doi.org/10.3390/e19120638.

– “Detecting Capital Market Convergence Clubs”(with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamic and Econometrics, 2017, Vol. 21, Issue 3. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2016-0062, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

– “Markov Regime Switching in Mean and in Fractional Integration Parameter “(with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 2017, Vol. 46, Issue 9, pp. 6974-6981. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2016.1222421, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

– “Analysis of the Seeds of the Debt Crisis in Europe” (with H. Yener and T. Stengos), European Journal of Finance, 2017, Vol. 23, Issue 15, pp. 1589-1610. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2016.1272474.

– “Application of Wavelet Decomposition in Time-Series Forecasting” (with R. Gencay and K. Zhang), Economics Letters, 2017, Vol. 158, pp. 41-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.06.010.

– “An Evaluation of Inflation Expectations in Turkey”(with B. Soybilgen), Central Bank Review, 2017, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 31-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2017.01.001.

– “Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition” (with M. Modugno and B. Soybilgen), International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, Vol. 32, Issue 4, pp. 1369-1384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.07.001.

– “Exchange Rates and Firm Survival: An Examination with Turkish Firm-Level Data” (with N. Toraganlı), Economic Systems, 2016, Vol. 40, Issue 3, pp. 433-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.09.009.

– “Relative Price Variability and Inflation: New Evidence”(with D. Baglan and H. Yılmazkuday), Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, Vol. 48, pp. 263-282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.04.004.

– “High Versus Low Inflation: Implications for Price-Level Convergence”(with H. Yılmazkuday), Empirical Economics, 2016, Vol. 50, Issue 4, pp. 1527-1563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0990-3.

– “MENA Economies: Reforms, Risk, and Development” (Introduction to Special Issue) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2015, Vol. 51, Issue 6, pp. 1141-1143. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1080508.

– “Measuring Human Development in MENA Region”(with M. Pınar and T. Stengos), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2015, Vol. 51, Issue 6, pp. 1179-1192. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1080517, [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

– “Is Forecasting Inflation Easier Under Inflation Targeting”(with H. Özkan), Empirical Economics, 2015, Vol. 48, Issue 2, pp. 609-626. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-013-0793-3, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].

– “Detecting Structural Changes Using Wavelets” (with H. Özkan), Financial Research Letters, 2015, Vol. 12, pp. 23-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2014.12.003, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes  as *.zip file bundle click here].

– “Persistence in Real Exchange Rates” (with T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2014, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 73–88. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2012-0039, [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss, R, and Matlab replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].

-“Persistence in Convergence”(with T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2014, Vol. 18, Issue 4, pp. 753-782. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100512000594, [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].

– “Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in Turkish Economy” (with H. Kaya), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2014, Vol. 50, Issue 2, pp. 214-229. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X500213, [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

-“The Role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further Evidence from an Emerging Market” (with B. Saltoglu) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2012, Vol. 48, Issue sup5, pp. 48-63. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X4806S504, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].

– “Observations on Turkey’s Recent Economic Performance” (with A. S. Akat) Atlantic Economic Journal, 2013, Vol. 41, Issue 1, pp. 1-27. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11293-012-9353-z.pdf,  [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

– “Has Inflation Targeting Increased Predictive Power of Term Structure About Future Inflation: Further Evidence from Turkish Market” (with H. Kaya), Applied Financial Economics, 2011, Vol. 21, Issue 20, pp. 1539-1547. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2011.581209.

– “Price-Level Convergence: New Evidence from U.S. Cities” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Economics Letters, 2011, Vol. 110, Issue 2, pp. 76-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.10.013.

– “The IS Puzzle and the Relative Risk Aversion in Turkey” (with H. Yilmazkuday), Empirical Economics Letters, 2010, Vol. 9, Number 2. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1151003.

– “Currency substitution, Policy Rule and Pass-Through: Evidence from Turkey” (with I. Zer-Toker), Applied Economics, 2010, Vol. 42, Issue 18, pp. 2365-2378. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701858018.

-“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Export and Import Prices” (with R. B. Tekin) Applied Economics, 2009, Vol. 41, Issue 17, pp. 2221-2228. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222454.

– “The Effects of Credit and Debit Cards on the Currency Demand” (with H. Yilmazkuday), Applied Economics, 2009, Vol. 41, Issue 17, pp. 2115-2123. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222496.

– “Okun’s Convergence within the US” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2009, Vol. 2, Issue 2-3, pp. 109-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-009-0028-6.

– “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Applied Financial Economics, 2007, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100600606206

– “Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2005, Vol. 9, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1228

– “The Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for a High Inflation Country: a Re-examination of the Case of Turkey”, Applied Economics Letters, 2003, Vol. 10, Issue 3, pp. 143-147. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350485022000041078

– “Is Turkish Exchange Rate Overvalued?” Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 2002, Vol. 13, Number 2, pp. 39-53

– “Kura Dayalı İstikrar Politikaları: Teori ve Uygulama” (with K. Akay), Bahçeşehir University Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 2000, Vol. 1, Number 2, pp. 47-74

Book Chapters: 

– “Electricity Trade Patterns in a Network: Evidence from the Ontario Market”(with T. S. Genç, and J.O. Pineau), Progress in Clean Energy, 2015, Vol. 2, pp. 669-692. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-17031-2_47.

–  Other publications (in Turkish):

– “Döviz Kuru İhracat Fiyatlarına Yansıyor mu?” (with A.S. Akat), İktisat ve Toplum, 2012, Vol. 26, pp. 1-14. http://www.iktisatvetoplum.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/asaf-savas-akat-ege-yazgan-26.pdf.

– “2014 Büyümesi Bize Ne Söylüyor ?” Borsa İstanbul Magazin, 2015, Winter, pp. 16-17. http://www.borsaistanbul.com/data/kurumsal_dergi/Borsa_istanbul_Magazine_4.pdf.

– “2015 Yılına Nasıl Başlandı ve Ekonomiyi Önümüzdeki Yıllarda Nasıl Bir Gelecek Bekliyor.”, Akfen Strategy, 2015 April-June, Issue 06, pp. 12-15. https://www.slideshare.net/AkfenHolding/strategy-dergisi-nisanhaziran-2015-say-6.

– “SimdiTahmin.com’un Türkiye GSYH Büyüme Oranları Için Tahmin Performansı”(with B. Soybilgen), İktisat ve Toplum, 2016, Vol. 74 . http://simditahmin.com/detail/excelT/SimdiTahmin-Turkish.pdf.