Research

Working Papers:

– “Searching for the Optimal Level: Inflation and Price Variability in Turkey“, (with H. Karahan)

– “Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence: Further Results ”, (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos)

–  “When wavelets are useful forecasters ?”, (with R. Gencay)

–  “Revisiting the link between Growth and Volatility: Panel GARCH analysis”, (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos)

–  “Does Wind Generation Really Reduce GHG Emissions?”, (with T. Genç)

Peer-Reviewed Journals:

–  “Real exchange rates and balance of trade: Does the J-curve effect really hold ?” (with S. Öztürk), Open Economies Review, forthcoming

–  “Detecting Convergence Clubs” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, published online, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/macroeconomic-dynamics/article/detecting-convergence-clubs/EC58250E36479B3D6014FAB6B329E20Ei, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

–  “Persistence in Convergence and Club Formation”, (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Bulletin of Economic Research, published online, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/boer.12130, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

–  “Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance”, (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos), Empirical Economics, published online, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-017-1343-1, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

–  “Evaluating Nowcasts of Bridge Equations with Advanced Combination Schemes for the Turkish Unemployment Rate” (with B. Soybilgen), Economic Modelling, Volume 72, pages 99-108, 2018, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999317308623, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

–  “Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Volume 22, Issue 3, 2018, https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/snde.ahead-of-print/snde-2017-0043/snde-2017-0043.xml, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

–  “Identification of Common Factors in Panel Data Growth Models” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos), Economics Letters, Volume 98, pages 94-97, 2018 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176518301502, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

–  “Nowcasting the new Turkish GDP” (with B. Soybilgen), Economics Bulletin, V. 38, Issue2 , 2018, http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2018/Volume38/EB-18-V38-I2-P105.pdf

–  “How Succesful Wavelets in Detecting Jumps ?” (with B. Eroglu and R. Gencay), Entrophy, 19 (12), 2017, http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/19/12/638

–  “Detecting Capital Market Convergence Clubs” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamic and Econometrics, Volume 21, Issue 3, 2017, https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/snde.2017.21.issue-3/snde-2016-0062/snde-2016-0062.xml?format=INT, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].

–  “Markov Regime Switching in mean and in fractional integration parameter “, (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, Volume 46, Issue:9, 2017, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03610918.2016.1222421, [Click here for working paper version of the paper].

–  “Analysis of the Seeds of the Debt Crisis in Europe”, (with H. Yener and T. Stengos), European Journal of Finance, V. 23, N. 15, 2017

–  “Application of Wavelet decomposition in Time-Series Forecasting”, (with R. Gencay and K. Zhang), Economics Letters, 158, 2017

–  “An Evaluation of Inflation Expectations in Turkey” (with B. Soybilgen), Central Bank Review, 17, 2017

–  “Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition” (with M. Modugno and B. Soybilgen), International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 2016

–  “The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Firm Survival, Sales and Productivity: An Examination with Turkish Firm Level Data” (with N. Toraganlı), Economic Systems, 40, 3, 2016

–  “Relative Price Variability and Inflation: New Evidence”, (with Deniz Baglan and Hakan Yılmazkuday), Journal of Macroeconomics, 48, 2016

–  “High versus Low Inflation: Implications for Price-Level Convergence” (with H. Yılmazkuday), Empirical Economics, 50, 2016

–  “MENA Economies: Reforms, Risk, and Development”, (Introduction to Special Issue) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51, 2015

–  “Measuring human development in MENA region”  Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,  51, 2015, (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos) [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

–  “Is Forecasting Inflation Easier under Inflation Targeting” (with H. Özkan), Empirical Economics, 48, 2015, [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].

–  “Detecting Structural Changes Using Wavelets” (with H. Özkan), Finance Research Letters, 50, 2015  [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes  as *.zip file bundle click here].

–  “Persistence in Real Exchange Rates”, (with T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 18(1), 2014 [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss, R, and Matlab replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].

–  “Persistence in Convergence”, (with T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 50(2), 2014 [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].

–  “Forecasting Macro Aggregates in Turkey” (with H. Kaya) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(2), 2014  [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

–  “The role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further evidence from Turkish Market”, (with B. Saltoglu), Emerging Markets, Finance and Trade, 48(5),  2012 [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].

–  “Observations on Turkey’s recent economic performance” Atlantic Economic Journal,  40(4), 2012 (with A.S. Akat),  [Click here for pdf version of the paper].

–  “Has Inflation Targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: Further evidence from Turkish Market” Applied Financial Economics, 21(20), 2011 (with H. Kaya).

–  “Price-Level Convergence: New Evidence from U.S. Cities” Economics Letters, 2011, 110, (with H. Yilmazkuday).

–  “The IS Puzzle and the Relative Risk Aversion in Turkey”, Empirical Economics Letters, 2010, 9(2), (with H. Yilmazkuday).

–  “Currency substitution, Policy Rule, and Pass-Through: Evidence from Turkey” Applied Economics2010, 42(18) (with I. Zer).

–  “Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Export and Import Prices” Applied Economics , 2009, 41(17), (with B. Tekin).

–  “The Effects of Credit and Debit Cards on the Currency Demand” Applied Economics2009, 41(17), (with H. Yilmazkuday).

–  “Okun’s Convergence within the US” Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2009, 2(2), (with H. Yilmazkuday).

–  “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel” Applied Financial Economics, 2007, 17, 1 (with H. Yilmazkuday).

–  “Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2005, 9, 1 (with H. Yilmazkuday ).

“The purchasing power parity hypothesis for a high inflation country: a re-examination of the case of Turkey”,  Applied Economics Letters, 2003, 10, 143-147.

–  “Is Turkish Exchange Rate Overvalued?” Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 2002, 13, No:2

–  “Döviz Kuru Dayalı İstikrar Programları: Teori ve Uygulama”, (in Turkish, with K. Akay), Ekonomi ve Yonetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 2000, V.1, N.2

Book Chapters: 

–  “Electricity Trade Patterns in a Network: Evidence from the Ontario Market”, (with T. Genç, and J.O. Pineau), in “Progress in Clean Energy, Springer, forthcoming

–  Other publications (in Turkish):

–  “Döviz Kuru İhracat Fiyatlarına Yansıyor mu ?” (with A.S. Akat), İktisat ve Toplum, 29, 2012 [Click here for pdf version of the paper]

–  “2014 Büyümesi Bize Ne Söylüyor ?” Borsa İstanbul Magazin, Kış 2015

–  “2015 Yılına Nasıl Başlandı ve Ekonomiyi Önümüzdeki Yıllarda Nasıl Bir Gelecek Bekliyor.”, Akfen Strategy, Nisan-Haziran 2015

–  “SimdiTahmin.com’un Türkiye GSYH büyüme oranları için tahmin performansı”, (with B. Soybilgen), 74, İktisat ve Toplum, 2016