2023
-“Big Data Financial Transactions and GDP Nowcasting: The Case of Turkey” (A.B. Barlas, S. Güler, B.O. İsa, A. Ortiz, B. Soybilgen), Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming
–“Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Macerası” (in Turkish) (with Ö. Şengül), Efil Yayınevi, forthcoming
-“Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices”, (with H. Kaya and B. Soybilgen). Journal of Business Cycle Research, published online, 2023
-“Searching for the Optimal Level: Inflation and Price Variability in Turkey” (with H. Karahan). Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 68, 197-215, 2023
-“KKM’nin kaybedenleri kazananları kim, sona ererse ne olur? (in Turkish) İktisat ve Toplum, 155, 2023, forthcoming
-“Ekonomik Model Tartışmaları II: Dış Açık”, (in Turkish), İktisat ve Toplum, 153, 2023
-“Ekonomik Model Tartışmaları I: Dış Açık”, (in Turkish), İktisat ve Toplum, 152, 2023
-“Finansal Çevrimler Işığında Türkiye Ekonomisi Yol Ayrımında mı? (in Turkish), in “Çıkmaz Yol” (edited by A.S. Akat and S. Gürsel), İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları
2021
-“Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors“ (with B. Soybilgen). Computational Economics, 57, 387-417, 2021
-“Revisiting the Link Between Growth and Volatility: Panel GARCH Analysis” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos). Empirical Economics, 61, 743-771
2020
-“Financial Cycles of the Turkish Economy: How Will It End This Time”, 2020, Chapter 4 in “Turkish Economy at Crossroad”, edited by A.S. Akat and S. Gursel, World Scientific, London.
-“Threshold Regression Model for Taylor Rule: The Case of Turkey” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos), Review of Economic Analysis, Vol. 12, No: 2, pp. 167-202, 2020
-“Detecting Convergence Clubs” (with F. C. Beylunioglu and T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 24, Issue 3, pp. 629-669, 2020. [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Koronavirüs Sonrası Dünyada Dış Ticaret’i Ne Bekliyor?”, Salgın Ekonomisi (içinde, sf. 141-164), Efil Yayınevi, 2020
-“What will be the new global economic order like after the pandemic ?, Business Diplomacy, 2020, Year 2, Issue 9, 40-44
-“İspanyol Gribi’den koranavirüse ekonomik maliyet, #tarih dergi, Haziran, 2020
2019
-“Real Exchange Rates and Balance of Trade: Does the J-Curve Effect Really Hold?” (with S. S. Öztürk), Open Economies Review, 30, 343-373, 2019
-“Enflasyon ve Göreli Fiyatlar ”, (with B. Soybilgen), Efil Journal, 2019, Vol. 2, 8, pp. 72-84.
2018
-“Persistence in Convergence and Club Formation” (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Bulletin of Economic Research, 2018, Vol. 70, Issue 2, pp.119-138., [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Quantile Forecast Combination Using Stochastic Dominance” (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos), Empirical Economics, 2018, Vol.55, Issue 4, pp. 1717-1755. [Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Evaluating Nowcasts of Bridge Equations with Advanced Combination Schemes for the Turkish Unemployment Rate” (with B. Soybilgen), Economic Modelling, 2018, Vol./Issue 72, pp. 99-108. , [Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2018, Vol. 22, Issue 3, pp.1-17. , [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Identification of Common Factors in Panel Data Growth Models” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos), Economics Letters, 2018, Vol. 168, pp. 94-97. , [Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Nowcasting the New Turkish GDP” (with B. Soybilgen), Economics Bulletin, 2018, Vol. 38, Issue 2, pp. 1083-1089.
-“Büyüme Stratejimizi Değiştirmemiz Gerekiyor”, İktisat ve Toplum, 2018, Vol. 101, pp. 97-102.
-“Yuvarlak Masa: Ekonomik Kriz Bu Kez Farklı (mı) ?”, (with A.S. Akat, M. Üçer, S. Gürsel, Ö.F. Çolak), İktisat ve Toplum, 2018, Vol. 98, pp. 21-51.
2017
-“How Succesful Are Wavelets in Detecting Jumps?” (with B. A. Eroglu and R. Gencay), Entrophy, 2017, Vol. 19, No. 12: 638.
-“Detecting Capital Market Convergence Clubs” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamic and Econometrics, 2017, Vol. 21, Issue 3.[Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition” (with M. Modugno and B. Soybilgen), International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, Vol. 32, Issue 4, pp. 1369-1384.
-“Markov Regime Switching in Mean and in Fractional Integration Parameter” (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 2017, Vol. 46, Issue 9, pp. 6974-6981.[Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Analysis of the Seeds of the Debt Crisis in Europe” (with H. Yener and T. Stengos), European Journal of Finance, 2017, Vol. 23, Issue 15, pp. 1589-1610.
–“Application of Wavelet Decomposition in Time-Series Forecasting” (with R. Gencay and K. Zhang), Economics Letters, 2017, Vol. 158, pp. 41-46.
-“An Evaluation of Inflation Expectations in Turkey”(with B. Soybilgen), Central Bank Review, 2017, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 31-38.
2016
– “Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition” (with M. Modugno and B. Soybilgen), International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, Vol. 32, Issue 4, pp. 1369-1384. .
– “Exchange Rates and Firm Survival: An Examination with Turkish Firm-Level Data” (with N. Toraganlı), Economic Systems, 2016, Vol. 40, Issue 3, pp. 433-443. .
– “Relative Price Variability and Inflation: New Evidence”(with D. Baglan and H. Yılmazkuday), Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, Vol. 48, pp. 263-282.
– “High Versus Low Inflation: Implications for Price-Level Convergence”(with H. Yılmazkuday), Empirical Economics, 2016, Vol. 50, Issue 4, pp. 1527-1563.
2015
– “MENA Economies: Reforms, Risk, and Development” (Introduction to Special Issue) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2015, Vol. 51, Issue 6, pp. 1141-1143.
– “Measuring Human Development in MENA Region”(with M. Pınar and T. Stengos), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2015, Vol. 51, Issue 6, pp. 1179-1192. [Click here for pdf version of the paper].
– “Is Forecasting Inflation Easier Under Inflation Targeting”(with H. Özkan), Empirical Economics, 2015, Vol. 48, Issue 2, pp. 609-626. [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].
– “Detecting Structural Changes Using Wavelets” (with H. Özkan), Financial Research Letters, 2015, Vol. 12, pp. 23-37. 3,[Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes as *.zip file bundle click here].
-“2014 Büyümesi Bize Ne Söylüyor?” Borsa İstanbul Magazin, 2015, Winter, pp. 16-17.
-“2015 Yılına Nasıl Başlandı ve Ekonomiyi Önümüzdeki Yıllarda Nasıl Bir Gelecek Bekliyor.”, Akfen Strategy, 2015 April-June, Issue 06, pp. 12-15.
2014
– “Persistence in Real Exchange Rates” (with T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2014, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 73–88. , [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss, R, and Matlab replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].
-“Persistence in Convergence” (with T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2014, Vol. 18, Issue 4, pp. 753-782. , [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].
– “Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in Turkish Economy” (with H. Kaya), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2014, Vol. 50, Issue 2, pp. 214-229. [Click here for pdf version of the paper].
2013
– “Observations on Turkey’s Recent Economic Performance” (with A. S. Akat) Atlantic Economic Journal, 2013, Vol. 41, Issue 1, pp. 1-27. , [Click here for pdf version of the paper].
2012
-“The Role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further Evidence from an Emerging Market” (with B. Saltoglu) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2012, Vol. 48, Issue sup5, pp. 48-63.[Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].
-“Döviz Kuru İhracat Fiyatlarına Yansıyor Mu?” (with A.S. Akat), İktisat ve Toplum, 2012, Vol. 26, pp. 1-14.
2011
– “Has Inflation Targeting Increased Predictive Power of Term Structure About Future Inflation: Further Evidence from Turkish Market” (with H. Kaya), Applied Financial Economics, 2011, Vol. 21, Issue 20, pp. 1539-1547.
– “Price-Level Convergence: New Evidence from U.S. Cities” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Economics Letters, 2011, Vol. 110, Issue 2, pp. 76-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.10.013.
2010
– “The IS Puzzle and the Relative Risk Aversion in Turkey” (with H. Yilmazkuday), Empirical Economics Letters, 2010, Vol. 9, Number 2. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1151003.
– “Currency substitution, Policy Rule and Pass-Through: Evidence from Turkey” (with I. Zer-Toker), Applied Economics, 2010, Vol. 42, Issue 18, pp. 2365-2378. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701858018.
2009
-“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Export and Import Prices” (with R. B. Tekin) Applied Economics, 2009, Vol. 41, Issue 17, pp. 2221-2228. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222454.
– “The Effects of Credit and Debit Cards on the Currency Demand” (with H. Yilmazkuday), Applied Economics, 2009, Vol. 41, Issue 17, pp. 2115-2123. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222496.
– “Okun’s Convergence within the US” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2009, Vol. 2, Issue 2-3, pp. 109-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-009-0028-6.
2007
– “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Applied Financial Economics, 2007, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100600606206
2005
– “Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2005, Vol. 9, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1228
2003
– “The Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for a High Inflation Country: a Re-examination of the Case of Turkey”, Applied Economics Letters, 2003, Vol. 10, Issue 3, pp. 143-147. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350485022000041078
2002
– “Is Turkish Exchange Rate Overvalued?” Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 2002, Vol. 13, Number 2, pp. 39-53
2000
– “Kura Dayalı İstikrar Politikaları: Teori ve Uygulama” (with K. Akay), Bahçeşehir University Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 2000, Vol. 1, Number 2, pp. 47-74
Working Papers
–What Drives Emerging Markets’ Yield Curves and Term Premia, (with C. Yavuz)
– “Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence: Further Results ”, (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos)
– “When wavelets are useful forecasters ?”, (with R. Gencay)
– “Revisiting the link between Growth and Volatility: Panel GARCH analysis”, (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos)
-“Does Wind Generation Really Reduce GHG Emissions?”, (with T. Genç)
