2025
-“Dünya Ticareti Dinamikleri Ve Türkiye” (in Turkish)
-“An Unpleasant Inflationary Dynamics”
2024
-“Big Data Financial Transactions and GDP Nowcasting: The Case of Turkey” (A.B. Barlas, S. Güler, B.O. İsa, A. Ortiz, B. Soybilgen), Journal of Forecasting, Vol 43, Issue 2, 227-248, 2024
“Finansal Çevrimler Işığında Türkiye Ekonomisi Yol Ayrımında mı? (in Turkish), in “Çıkmaz Yol” (edited by A.S. Akat and S. Gürsel), İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları
2023
–“Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Macerası” (in Turkish) (with Ö. Şengül), Efil Yayınevi, in “Yüzyılın Ekonomisi”, edited by Ömer Faruk Çolak, 2023
-“Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices”, (with H. Kaya and B. Soybilgen). Journal of Business Cycle Research, published online, 2023
-“Searching for the Optimal Level: Inflation and Price Variability in Turkey” (with H. Karahan). Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 68, 197-215, 2023
-“KKM’nin kaybedenleri kazananları kim, sona ererse ne olur? (in Turkish) İktisat ve Toplum, 155, 2023
-“Ekonomik Model Tartışmaları II: Dış Açık”, (in Turkish), İktisat ve Toplum, 153, 2023
-“Ekonomik Model Tartışmaları I: Dış Açık”, (in Turkish), İktisat ve Toplum, 152, 2023
-“Finansal Çevrimler Işığında Türkiye Ekonomisi Yol Ayrımında mı? (in Turkish), in “Çıkmaz Yol” (edited by A.S. Akat and S. Gürsel), İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları
2021
-“Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors“ (with B. Soybilgen). Computational Economics, 57, 387-417, 2021
-“Revisiting the Link Between Growth and Volatility: Panel GARCH Analysis” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos). Empirical Economics, 61, 743-771
2020
-“Financial Cycles of the Turkish Economy: How Will It End This Time”, 2020, Chapter 4 in “Turkish Economy at Crossroad”, edited by A.S. Akat and S. Gursel, World Scientific, London.
-“Threshold Regression Model for Taylor Rule: The Case of Turkey” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos), Review of Economic Analysis, Vol. 12, No: 2, pp. 167-202, 2020
-“Detecting Convergence Clubs” (with F. C. Beylunioglu and T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 24, Issue 3, pp. 629-669, 2020. [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Koronavirüs Sonrası Dünyada Dış Ticaret’i Ne Bekliyor?”, Salgın Ekonomisi (içinde, sf. 141-164), Efil Yayınevi, 2020
-“What will be the new global economic order like after the pandemic ?, Business Diplomacy, 2020, Year 2, Issue 9, 40-44
-“İspanyol Gribi’den koranavirüse ekonomik maliyet, #tarih dergi, Haziran, 2020
2019
-“Real Exchange Rates and Balance of Trade: Does the J-Curve Effect Really Hold?” (with S. S. Öztürk), Open Economies Review, 30, 343-373, 2019
-“Enflasyon ve Göreli Fiyatlar ”, (with B. Soybilgen), Efil Journal, 2019, Vol. 2, 8, pp. 72-84.
2018
-“Persistence in Convergence and Club Formation” (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Bulletin of Economic Research, 2018, Vol. 70, Issue 2, pp.119-138., [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Quantile Forecast Combination Using Stochastic Dominance” (with M. Pınar and T. Stengos), Empirical Economics, 2018, Vol.55, Issue 4, pp. 1717-1755. [Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Evaluating Nowcasts of Bridge Equations with Advanced Combination Schemes for the Turkish Unemployment Rate” (with B. Soybilgen), Economic Modelling, 2018, Vol./Issue 72, pp. 99-108. , [Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2018, Vol. 22, Issue 3, pp.1-17. , [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Identification of Common Factors in Panel Data Growth Models” (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos), Economics Letters, 2018, Vol. 168, pp. 94-97. , [Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Nowcasting the New Turkish GDP” (with B. Soybilgen), Economics Bulletin, 2018, Vol. 38, Issue 2, pp. 1083-1089.
-“Büyüme Stratejimizi Değiştirmemiz Gerekiyor”, İktisat ve Toplum, 2018, Vol. 101, pp. 97-102.
-“Yuvarlak Masa: Ekonomik Kriz Bu Kez Farklı (mı) ?”, (with A.S. Akat, M. Üçer, S. Gürsel, Ö.F. Çolak), İktisat ve Toplum, 2018, Vol. 98, pp. 21-51.
2017
-“How Succesful Are Wavelets in Detecting Jumps?” (with B. A. Eroglu and R. Gencay), Entrophy, 2017, Vol. 19, No. 12: 638.
-“Detecting Capital Market Convergence Clubs” (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamic and Econometrics, 2017, Vol. 21, Issue 3.[Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download replication files click here].
-“Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition” (with M. Modugno and B. Soybilgen), International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, Vol. 32, Issue 4, pp. 1369-1384.
-“Markov Regime Switching in Mean and in Fractional Integration Parameter” (with T. Stengos and H. Özkan), Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 2017, Vol. 46, Issue 9, pp. 6974-6981.[Click here for working paper version of the paper].
-“Analysis of the Seeds of the Debt Crisis in Europe” (with H. Yener and T. Stengos), European Journal of Finance, 2017, Vol. 23, Issue 15, pp. 1589-1610.
–“Application of Wavelet Decomposition in Time-Series Forecasting” (with R. Gencay and K. Zhang), Economics Letters, 2017, Vol. 158, pp. 41-46.
-“An Evaluation of Inflation Expectations in Turkey”(with B. Soybilgen), Central Bank Review, 2017, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 31-38.
2016
– “Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition” (with M. Modugno and B. Soybilgen), International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, Vol. 32, Issue 4, pp. 1369-1384. .
– “Exchange Rates and Firm Survival: An Examination with Turkish Firm-Level Data” (with N. Toraganlı), Economic Systems, 2016, Vol. 40, Issue 3, pp. 433-443. .
– “Relative Price Variability and Inflation: New Evidence”(with D. Baglan and H. Yılmazkuday), Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, Vol. 48, pp. 263-282.
– “High Versus Low Inflation: Implications for Price-Level Convergence”(with H. Yılmazkuday), Empirical Economics, 2016, Vol. 50, Issue 4, pp. 1527-1563.
2015
– “MENA Economies: Reforms, Risk, and Development” (Introduction to Special Issue) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2015, Vol. 51, Issue 6, pp. 1141-1143.
– “Measuring Human Development in MENA Region”(with M. Pınar and T. Stengos), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2015, Vol. 51, Issue 6, pp. 1179-1192. [Click here for pdf version of the paper].
– “Is Forecasting Inflation Easier Under Inflation Targeting”(with H. Özkan), Empirical Economics, 2015, Vol. 48, Issue 2, pp. 609-626. [Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].
– “Detecting Structural Changes Using Wavelets” (with H. Özkan), Financial Research Letters, 2015, Vol. 12, pp. 23-37. 3,[Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download R replication codes as *.zip file bundle click here].
-“2014 Büyümesi Bize Ne Söylüyor?” Borsa İstanbul Magazin, 2015, Winter, pp. 16-17.
-“2015 Yılına Nasıl Başlandı ve Ekonomiyi Önümüzdeki Yıllarda Nasıl Bir Gelecek Bekliyor.”, Akfen Strategy, 2015 April-June, Issue 06, pp. 12-15.
2014
– “Persistence in Real Exchange Rates” (with T. Stengos), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2014, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 73–88. , [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss, R, and Matlab replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].
-“Persistence in Convergence” (with T. Stengos), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2014, Vol. 18, Issue 4, pp. 753-782. , [Click here for pdf version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.rar file bundle click here].
– “Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in Turkish Economy” (with H. Kaya), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2014, Vol. 50, Issue 2, pp. 214-229. [Click here for pdf version of the paper].
2013
– “Observations on Turkey’s Recent Economic Performance” (with A. S. Akat) Atlantic Economic Journal, 2013, Vol. 41, Issue 1, pp. 1-27. , [Click here for pdf version of the paper].
2012
-“The Role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further Evidence from an Emerging Market” (with B. Saltoglu) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2012, Vol. 48, Issue sup5, pp. 48-63.[Click here for working paper version of the paper. To download Gauss replication codes and data as *.zip file bundle click here].
-“Döviz Kuru İhracat Fiyatlarına Yansıyor Mu?” (with A.S. Akat), İktisat ve Toplum, 2012, Vol. 26, pp. 1-14.
2011
– “Has Inflation Targeting Increased Predictive Power of Term Structure About Future Inflation: Further Evidence from Turkish Market” (with H. Kaya), Applied Financial Economics, 2011, Vol. 21, Issue 20, pp. 1539-1547.
– “Price-Level Convergence: New Evidence from U.S. Cities” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Economics Letters, 2011, Vol. 110, Issue 2, pp. 76-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.10.013.
2010
– “The IS Puzzle and the Relative Risk Aversion in Turkey” (with H. Yilmazkuday), Empirical Economics Letters, 2010, Vol. 9, Number 2. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1151003.
– “Currency substitution, Policy Rule and Pass-Through: Evidence from Turkey” (with I. Zer-Toker), Applied Economics, 2010, Vol. 42, Issue 18, pp. 2365-2378. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701858018.
2009
-“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Export and Import Prices” (with R. B. Tekin) Applied Economics, 2009, Vol. 41, Issue 17, pp. 2221-2228. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222454.
– “The Effects of Credit and Debit Cards on the Currency Demand” (with H. Yilmazkuday), Applied Economics, 2009, Vol. 41, Issue 17, pp. 2115-2123. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222496.
– “Okun’s Convergence within the US” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2009, Vol. 2, Issue 2-3, pp. 109-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-009-0028-6.
2007
– “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Applied Financial Economics, 2007, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100600606206
2005
– “Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation” (with H. Yilmazkuday) Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2005, Vol. 9, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1228
2003
– “The Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for a High Inflation Country: a Re-examination of the Case of Turkey”, Applied Economics Letters, 2003, Vol. 10, Issue 3, pp. 143-147. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350485022000041078
2002
– “Is Turkish Exchange Rate Overvalued?” Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 2002, Vol. 13, Number 2, pp. 39-53
2000
– “Kura Dayalı İstikrar Politikaları: Teori ve Uygulama” (with K. Akay), Bahçeşehir University Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 2000, Vol. 1, Number 2, pp. 47-74
Working Papers
–What Drives Emerging Markets’ Yield Curves and Term Premia, (with C. Yavuz)
– “Regime Switching with Structural Breaks in Output Convergence: Further Results ”, (with F. Beynunioglu and T. Stengos)
– “When wavelets are useful forecasters ?”, (with R. Gencay)
– “Revisiting the link between Growth and Volatility: Panel GARCH analysis”, (with P. Deniz and T. Stengos)
-“Does Wind Generation Really Reduce GHG Emissions?”, (with T. Genç)
